Projects

Carbon Stock Dynamics in Thuringian Forests - a Model Study for Amending the Kyoto-Protocol

Scientist(s): Christian Wirth (post-doc project)
Funding: BMBF 01LK9901
Duration: 2000-2003

Background: Article 3.3 and 3.4 in the Kyoto Protocol of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Control (UNFCCC) should make it possible for industrial nations to satisfy their responsibilities for reducing green house gas emissions to some extent by the creation of CO2 sinks through specific land use activities. Together, the two articles affect all facets of silviculture.

Article 3.3 states that credit should be given to C sinks as well as C sources originating from the change in the type of land use due to 'afforestation', 'refforestation' and 'deforestation' since 1990. This controversial article is not relevant to Thuringia, because afforestations and deforestations play a subordinate role in this region. In the mid 1990s, the net area balance totals only 0.03 % per year on ca. 540,000 ha of forested area.

Article 3.4 introduces the possibility that 'additional' silvicultural measures, manifested in an increase of C stocks, will be able to be credited. According to the Bonn and Marrakesh Agreements, it is assumed that this involves intentionally induced C stock construction. CO2 induced by indirect influences such as climate change, elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, N deposition or age class effects are excluded from the commitment. Article 3.4 explicitly requires that the C stock changes be measured in a transparent, verifiable way and reported with indication of statistical uncertainties. The first commitment period applies from 2008 to 2012.

Central Questions: (1) How high were the C stocks in the Thuringian forested area in 1990 in the litter mass, dead wood, organic layer and mineral soil pools? How high are the uncertainties involved? (2) Using the data available, to what extent is it possible to detect C flows and C stock changes? With how much accuracy can such changes be indicated? (3) Can the contributions of direct and indirect anthropogenic effects on the current C sink be quantified and separated from one another? (4) What silvicultural options are available for directing the C stock change within the terms of the Kyoto Protocol? (5) From the current standpoint, what prognoses can we make for the first commitment period and those following?

Methods: The study was generally conducted with the following three basic principles: (1) application and utilization of original data whenever possible, (2) derivation of statistical uncertainties in the C stock and C flow calculations from original data, (3) stand-accurate regionalization of the results based on the GIS of the LAWFJ.

Collaborators: Ernst-Detlef Schulze (PI), Gesina Schwalbe, Silke Tomczyk, Eberhard Weller, Gerhard Weber (Thüringer Landesanstalt für Wald, Jagd und Fischerei, TLWJF, Gotha), Jens Schumacher, Mona Vetter, Hannes Böttcher (MPI-BGC)

Project publications:

full report in German (302 pp.) (pdf)

Vetter M, Wirth C, Böttcher H, Churkina G, Schulze E-D, Wutzler T, Weber G (2005): Partitioning direct and indirect human-induced effects on carbon sequestration of managed coniferous forests using model simulations and forest inventories. Global Change Biology 11: 810-827. (pdf)

Czimczik C, Mund M, Schulze E-D and Wirth C: Effects of reforestation, deforestation and afforestation on carbon storage in soils. In: The Carbon Balance of Forest Biomes (eds. Griffiths H. & Jarvis PG). Garland Science/Bios Scientific Publishers, London pp. 319-330. (pdf)

Wirth C, Schumacher J, Schulze E-D (2004): Generic biomass functions for Norway spruce in central Europe - a meta-analysis approach towards prediction and uncertainty estimation. Tree Physiology 24:121-139. (pdf)

Joosten R, Schumacher J, Wirth C and Schulte A (2004): Evaluating tree carbon predictions of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in western Germany. Forest Ecology and Management 189(1-3): 87-96. (pdf)