Interplay of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation modulating carbon anomalies in tropical South America
MSc Thesis
Contact: Santiago Botía (sbotia@bgc-jena.mpg.de)
The 2023 drought in the Amazon was not only driven by El Niño event, but was amplified by the anomalous warming in the Atlantic Ocean (Botía et al., 2025). In addition, a recent study (Serrão et al., 2025) demonstrated that among several teleconnections analyzed, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation had the strongest combined influence in Gross Primary Productivity, Precipitation, Evapotranspiration and Ecosystem Water Use Efficiency in the Amazon and the Cerrado biomes. In this project we want to explore this further but from the perspective of net carbon exchange and fire emissions. For this we will explore how sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans modulate Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) and fire emissions. To obtain NEE, we will use the output of global atmospheric inversions, which provide a spatially resolved field of Net Biome Exchange (NBE) and with remotely-sensed fire emission products we can obtain Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE = NBE - Fire). Furthermore, during years of large sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic we will quantify how CO2 outgassing from the sea surface affects the concentrations at the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO) and the continental regional signal of CO2.
Usefull skills
- Programming skills in Python or R
- Knowledge on environmental physics and atmospheric dynamics
- Experience or willingness to learn atmospheric transport modeling
References
Botía S., Dias-Junior CQ., …& Bastos A. (2025). Reduced vegetation uptake during the extreme 2023 drought turns the Amazon into a weak carbon source. ESS Open Archive . January 22, 2025
Serrão, E.A.O., Cavalcante, R.B.L., Zanin, P.R. et al. (2025). The effects of teleconnections on water and carbon fluxes in the two South America’s largest biomes. Sci Rep 15, 1395. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-85272-z