Atmosphere-Biosphere Coupling, Climate and Causality (ABC³)

Dr. Alexander J. Winkler

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Mission

The Atmosphere-Biosphere Coupling, Climate and Causality research group focuses on identifying feedbacks and causal links in the exchange of carbon, water and energy fluxes between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere. In particular, we aim to understand how this coupled system changes under rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration. We use models of varying complexity (conceptual models to fully coupled Earth system models) and combine our research with statistical analysis and modelling (machine learning to hybrid modelling) based on various Earth observation data streams.

Current key items of the ABC³ research group:

Methodological and Conceptual Approaches

• Exploring the application of modern machine learning / deep learning methods in Earth system research with a focus on obtaining interpretability to improve process understanding
• Developing hybrid-modelling approaches (i.e. theory-guided fusion of data-driven and mechanistic models) of land-atmosphere interactions

Overarching Research Objectives:

• Disentangling the different effects of rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration and other confounding factors in Earth observations and model simulations using causal inference
• Understanding the causal drivers of phenological changes in in-situ and satellite observations and identify the biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system
• Isolating and quantifying direct and indirect effects in the atmosphere-biosphere coupling in controlling anomalies in carbon fixation
• Determining constraints of key entities in the carbon cycle climate system by linking multi-model ensemble simulations and observational data

Projects

European Research Council (ERC) Synergy Grant USMILE

The EU-funded USMILE project will use machine learning to improve modelling and understanding of the Earth system. more

NFDI Consortium for Earth System Sciences (NFDI4Earth)

NFDI4Earth addresses digital needs of Earth System Sciences. Earth System scientists cooperate in international and interdisciplinary networks with the overarching aim to understand the functioning and interactions within the Earth system and address the multiple challenges of global change. more

PhenoFeedbacks

The DFG-funded PhenoFeedbacks project addresses the effects and feedbacks of phenological changes in the climate system, addressing questions such as: How do changes in land surface phenology affect annual changes in biophysical properties such as land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and total surface energy balance? What is the biophysical radiative forcing caused by phenological changes? Does this offset the lower radiative forcing due to increased CO2 uptake during a longer growing season?

Special Project (ECMWF): OpenIFS Modeling of the Atmospheric Carbon Cycle

Together with research groups at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) in Spain, Wageningen University & Research (WUR) in the Netherlands, the project aims to refine the OpenIFS model to be used for high-resolution transport modelling of CO₂.

Max-Planck Caltech Carnegie Columbia (MC³) Center

The Max-Planck Caltech Carnegie Columbia (MC³) Center aims to transform Earth system analysis and predictions, integrating advanced Earth observations and machine learning for deeper understanding and sustainable management of our planet, in particular the land. Our mission is to set new standards in Earth system modelling, foster next-generation scientists, and lead in earth sciences research and education, shaping a sustainable future through innovative, interdisciplinary collaboration. more