Kolloquium: Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

This presentation examines overshoot pathways, addressing the implications of temporarily exceeding targeted warming limits before attempting temperature reduction. Our research reveals distinct climate change impacts in overshoot scenarios compared to those avoiding temperature exceedance, with potential long-term risk mitigation balanced against limited immediate relevance for adaptation planning. We highlight the geophysical need for substantial carbon dioxide removal capacity while acknowledging the technical, economic, and sustainability constraints that may hinder its large-scale deployment. Given the uncertainties in achieving temperature decline after overshoot within expected timescales, we emphasize that confidence in this approach remains low. Consequently, we argue that rapid near-term emission reductions remain the most effective strategy for mitigating climate risks.

https://iiasa.ac.at/staff/carl-schleussner